Global Journal of Economic and Finance Research

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of Brazil’s economic outlook toward 2030, situating the country’s macroeconomic trajectory within the broader Latin American and global contexts. While recent indicators – such as moderating inflation, rising interest rates, and stable exchange rates – suggest short-term macroeconomic stabilization, Brazil continues to face deep-seated structural challenges that threaten its long-term development. These include chronically low productivity, weak innovation diffusion, fiscal rigidity, and institutional fragmentation. Drawing on neoclassical and endogenous growth theories, institutional economics, and Latin American structuralist thought, the study examines how these constraints limit Brazil’s ability to converge with higher-income economies. The research incorporates empirical data from the Banco Central do Brasil and the World Bank, as well as the scenario-based framework developed by the World Economic Forum (2025), which outlines four possible global productivity futures by 2030. The analysis finds that Brazil is currently trending toward the “Productivity Drought” scenario – a path characterized by stagnant technological progress and insufficient human capital development. However, this trajectory is not inevitable. With coherent reforms in education, fiscal governance, infrastructure, and trade integration, Brazil could pivot toward a more dynamic and inclusive growth model. By synthesizing macroeconomic forecasting with structural and theoretical diagnostics, this paper offers a multidimensional perspective on Brazil’s development prospects. It concludes that the period between 2025 and 2030 will be decisive: the country’s ability to transition from cyclical stabilization to structural transformation will determine whether it escapes the middle-income trap or remains constrained by its historical vulnerabilities.

Brazilian economy, Productivity growth, Structural reform, Scenario planning, Economic Development.

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