Fiscal Policy and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows in Nigeria: An ECM Approach
Abstract:
This study examined the effect of fiscal policy on Foreign Direct Investment inflows in Nigeria for the period 1999-2023. Foreign direct investment inflows to Nigeria served as the dependent variable while fiscal policy proxied by government tax revenues, government expenditure and government debt served as the independent variables. Time series data for the period studied were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin as well as from the Nigeria Bureau Statistics (NBS). The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test indicated that all the variables were integrated at order 1 i.e. I(1) while the Johansen cointegration test showed that long run equilibrium relationship existed among the variable. Hence, the study employed the Error Correction Model (ECM) technique in data analysis. Empirical findings of the study revealed that government expenditure had a positive and significant effect on foreign direct investment inflows in Nigeria while government tax revenue and government debt exerted negative and insignificant effects on foreign direct investments in Nigeria for the period studied. The study therefore recommended amongst others that there is the need for government to ensure that increased tax revenues as well as its expenditures are channeled towards the productive sectors or the economy such as agriculture, education, construction, manufacturing and infrastructural development. Government debts are also to be judiciously managed and used to finance critical sectors of the economy. All these will positively enhance economic growth and FDI inflows to Nigeria.
KeyWords:
Debt, Expenditure, Government, Investment, Tax Revenue
References:
- Auerbach, A. J. & Gorodnicheko, Y. (2012). Fiscal multipliers in recession and normal times. NBER Working Paper No. 17447
- Anichebe, A. S. (2019). Impact of tax revenue on foreign direct investment in Nigeria. IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM), 21(7), 50-56.
- Ayaya, M. (2017). Impact of fiscal policy on private investment in Kenya. Institute of Policy Analysis and Research discussion paper no.066/2005. Nairobi: IPAR.
- Bello, J. (2015). Fiscal policy and the growth of foreign direct investment in sub-Saharan Africa (selected countries: Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa).
- Blejer, M.S. & Khan, M.S. (1984). Government policy and private investment in developing countries. IMF Staff Papers, 31(2), 379-403.
- Boly, A., Coulibaly, S. andKere, E. (2019). Tax policy, foreign direct investment and spillover effects. African Development Bank Group, Working Paper, no. 310.
- Buiter, W. H. (2010). Sovereign debt problems in advanced industrial countries. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 24(2), 73-94
- Cecchitti, S. G., Mohanty, M. S. & Zampolli, F. (2011). The real effects of debt. BIS Working Paper No. 352
- Delong, J. B. & Summers, L. H. (2012). Fiscal policy in a depressed economy. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 43(1), 233-297
- Dunning, J. H. (2001). The eclectic (OLI) paradigm of international production: past, present and future. International Journal of the Economics of Business, 8(5), 173-190
- Edame, G. E. & Okoi, O.B. (2015). Fiscal deficit and economic growth in Nigeria: a chow test approach. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5(3): 748-752.
- Evans, P. K., Kariuki, P. & Wafula, F. (2022). Effect of fiscal policy on foreign direct investment inflows in Kenya. International Journal of Finance and Accounting, 7(1), 33-59
- Lenyie, L. (2025). Fiscal policy and inflow of foreign direct investment in Nigerian financial market. International Journal of Economics and Financial Management (IJEFM), 10(3), 25-51
- Khalifa, M.T. (2016). The impact of fiscal policy on investment in Libya (2000-2015). Open Access Library Journal, 3, 12-23.
- Kiburi, W., Mirie, M., Okiro, K. & Ruigu, G. (2017). The relationship between tax burden and foreign direct investment inflows: a review of empirical literature. European Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance Research, 5(5), 67-77.
- Kwame, A. (2021). Impact of tax incentives on foreign direct investment: evidence from Africa. Sustainability 2021, 13, 8661. https:// doi.org/10.3390/su13158661
- Maingi, K. (2014). The effect of foreign direct investments on economic growth in Kenya.AResearch Project Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements of the Master of Science in Finance, School of Business, University of Nairobi.
- Mugambi, J. & Murungi, K. (2017). Effect of external debt service on foreign directinvestment inflows in Kenya. European Journal of Economics, Law and Politics, 4(3), 1-13.
- Nwaeze, C. (2019). Public Finance with Basics of Local Government Finance. Aba: Cheedal Global Prints Ltd.
- Ogege, S. & Boloupremo, T. (2020). The influence of government fiscal policy on foreign direct investment in Nigerian economy. Journal of Accounting and Management, 10(3), 88-96.
- Olaleye, M.O., Riro, G.K. & Memba, F.S. (2016). Effect of reduced company income tax incentives on foreign direct investment in listed Nigerian manufacturing companies. European Journal of Business, Economics and Accountancy, 4(1), 39-54.
- Olufemi, A., Awojori, S. & Olu, A. (2017). Impact of security expenditure on foreign directinvestment in Nigeria. International Journal of Accounting, Finance and Risk Management, 1(1), 33-38
- Osuala, A.E. & Ebieri, J. (2014). Empirical analysis of the impact of fiscal policy on economic growth of Nigeria. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 6(6), 203-211.
- Osuala, A. E. (2010). Econometrics theory and problems. ToniPrints Services. ISBN 978-2009-06-7.
- Othman, N., Yusop, Z., Andaman, G. & Ismail, M. (2018). Impact of government spending on FDI inflows: The case of asean-5, China and India. International Journal of Business and Society, 19(2), 401-414.
- Ozekhome, H. O. (2022). Tax and foreign direct investment in Nigeria: A dynamic estimation approach. Journal of Economic Development, 42(2), 115-124
- Peters, G.T. & Kiabel, B.D. (2015). Tax incentives and foreign direct investment in Nigeria. IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance, 6(5): 10-20.
- Reinhart, C. M. & Rogoff, K. S. (2010). Growth in a time of debt. American Economic Review, 100(2), 573-578
- Schnitzer, M. (2000). Debt versus foreign risk on the structure of international capital flow. Economica, 69, 41-67.
- Sindre, M. (2011). Does foreign investment policy matter? the case of U.S. direct investment abroad in manufacturing. Dissertation, University of Kentucky.
- Thuita, G.W. (2017). An investigation of the effect of tax incentives on the FDIs: A case of EPZs in AthiRiver Kenya. Journal of Accounting, Finance and Auditing Studies, 3(1), 17-36.
- Trebicka, B. (2015). Does fiscal policy matters for economic growth? Empirical study of Albanian situation. Interdisplinary Journal of Research and Development, 2(2).
- World Bank, (2013). Trends in developing countries, Washington D.C: IMF.