Assessment of Inflation and Exchange Rate Hedge Attributes of Listed Property Assets in Africa

Author's Information:

Akinlabi, O. W.

Department of Estate Management, Abiola Ajimobi Technical University, Ibadan

Okunlola, J. A.

Department of Estate Management, Abiola Ajimobi Technical University, Ibadan

Vol 02 No 06 (2025):Volume 02 Issue 06 June 2025

Page No.: 429-442

Abstract:

Inflation and exchange rates are key macroeconomic indicators that affect the economic growth and development of every country. The importance of these indicators cannot be overemphasised in determining the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of all sectors in a country. This study analyses the inflation and exchange rate hedge attributes of Africa-listed real estate properties which include, Nigeria, South Africa, and Egypt. The paper aimed to examine the risk-return characteristics of listed indirect real estate assets to determine the effects of macroeconomic factors such as inflation and exchange rates on the assets. Secondary data was used between the period of year 2008 to 2023.  The study utilized quantitative data analysis such as holding period returns, trend lines, percentage changes, unit root tests, and cointegration tests. The F-bound cointegration results indicate that Nigeria-listed property assets provide a hedge against exchange rate risk in the long run but not against inflation rate risk.  Furthermore, it shows that Egypt's listed property assets have a statistically significant long-run hedge against exchange rate and inflation rate movements. Also, it indicates that South Africa-listed property assets display a long-term hedge against exchange rate movements but not against inflation. The study concluded that Nigeria and South Africa-listed property assets offer long-run hedging benefits against exchange rate risk. However, Egypt-listed property assets provide statistically significant long-term hedges both against exchange and inflation rate risk. The study therefore recommends that investors should consider Egypt-listed property assets for long-run hedging against both exchange and inflation rates risk. 

KeyWords:

Listed Property Asset, Real Estate Investment Trust, Inflation Rate, Exchange Rate, Investment Decision

References:

  1. Akinsomi, O., Mkhabela, N. & Taderera, M. 2018. The role of macroeconomic indicators in explaining direct commercial real estate returns: Evidence from South Africa. Journal of Property Research, 35(1), pp. 28-52.  https://doi.org/10.1080/09599916.2017.1402071
  2. Amidu, A and Aluko, T. (2006). Performance Analysis of Listed Construction and Real Estate Companies in Nigeria. Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, 12(2), 177–85.
  3. Amidu, A., Aluko, B.T. & Saibu, M.O. (2008). Real estate security and other investment assets: A comparison of investment characteristics in Nigerian Stock Market. Journal of property investment and finance, 26 (2), 155-161.   
  4. Bacchetta, P., & van Wincoop, E. (2009). On the Unstable Relationship between Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1466683 Bank of Algeria (2023). Annual exchange rate in Algeria. Available:  https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/algeria/exchange-rate-against-usd (Accessed on 24th June, 2024).
  5. Buehler, M. M. & Almeida, P.R. (2016) Understanding the commercial real estate investment ecosystem. An early warning system prototype (No. World Economic Forum REF 080116).
  6. Business Day Report (2024). Africa’s GDP giants: Top 10 largest economies of 2024 – IMF. Available: https://businessday.ng/news/article/africas-gdp-giants-top-10-largest-economies-of-2024-imf/ (Accessed on 24th June, 2024). 
  7. Case, B., Shiller, R. J., & Weiss, A. (1999). Index-based futures and options markets in real estate. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 25(2), 83–92. https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.1999.319728
  8. Central Bank of Egypt (2022). Annual inflation rate in Egypt. Available:https://www.cbe.org.eg/en/economic-research/statistics/inflation-rates/historical-data (Accessed 5th January, 2024)
  9. Central Bank of Nigeria (2022). Annual inflation rate in Nigeria. Available: https://cbn.gov.ng/Rates/inflrates.asp. (Accessed 5th January, 2024)
  10. Emele, C. R., & Umeh, O. L. (2013). A fresh look at the performance and diversification benefits of real estate equities in Nigeria: Case study of real estate equity and some selected common stocks. International Journal of Development and Sustainability, 2(2), 1300–1311.
  11. Eregha, P. B. (2021). Asymmetric response of cpi inflation to exchange rates in oil-dependent developing economy: the case of Nigeria. Economic Change and Restructuring, 55(2), 1091–1108. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-021-09339-3
  12. Fehrle, D. (2023). Hedging against inflation: housing versus equity. Empirical Economics. https://doi.org/ 10.1007/s00181-023-02449-z
  13. Glascock, J. L., Lu, C., & So, R. W. (2002). REIT returns and inflation: Perverse or reverse causality effects? Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 24(3), 301–317. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1020706512436
  14. Gyourko, J., & Linneman, P. (1988). Owner-occupied homes, income-producing properties, and REITs as inflation hedges: Empirical findings. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 1, 347–372.
  15. Harrami, H. & Paulsson, O. 2017. Rent modelling of Swedish office markets: Forecasting and rent effects. Unpublished Master thesis. Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden
  16. Hoesli, M., Lekander, J., & Witkiewicz, W. (2008). Real estate portfolio strategy and the macroeconomy. Journal of Property Research, 25(3), 229–255. 
  17. Karakozova, O. 2004. Modelling and forecasting office returns in the Helsinki area. Journal of Property Research, 21(1), pp. 51-73. https://doi. org/10.1080/0959991042000254579
  18. Lee, B. S., & Hong, G. (2011). Are Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) an Inflation Hedge? SSRN Electronic Journalhttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1787030
  19. Lee, S. (2010). The inflation-hedging characteristics of UK property. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 28(4), 329–347. https://doi.org/10.1108/14635781011058801
  20. Lee, M. T., Lee, M. L., Lai, F. T., & Yang, T. H. (2011). Do real estate stocks hedge inflation in the long run? Evidence from three East Asian emerging markets. Journal of Real Estate Literature, 19(2), 345–372.
  21. Lee, M. T., & Lee, M. L. (2012). Long-run inflation-hedging properties of United State equity real estate investment trusts (REITs): Before and after the structural break in the 1990s. African Journal of Business Management, 6(6), 2162–2168.
  22. Lee, C. L., & Lee, M. L. (2012). Hedging inflation and interest-rate risks with real estate securities: international evidence. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 30(3), 198–210. https://doi.org/10.1108/14635781211236678
  23. Limmack, R. J., & Ward, C. W. R. (2008). Real estate returns and inflation: The United Kingdom experience. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 36(3), 233–248.
  24. Ling, D. C., Naranjo, A., & Scheick, B. (2014). Monetary policy and commercial real estate returns. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 40(5), 55–69. 
  25. Muckenhaupt, J., Hoesli, J. & Zhu, B. (2023). Listed real estate as an inflation hedge across regimes. The journal of real estate finance and economics, 8 (13), 57-69. 
  26. Namnso, U., Ighalo, J. & Sanusi, Y. 2015. Modelling the office rental market in selected districts of Abuja. De Gruyter, 7(28), pp. 64-72.
  27. Ng, B.F. & Higgins, D. 2007. Modelling the commercial property market: An empirical study of the Singapore office market. Pacific Rim Property Research Journal, 13(2), pp. 176-193. https://doi.org/10.1080/14445921.2 007.11104229 Ntuli, M. & Ak
  28. Nguyen, N.T. (2017). Foreign Direct Investment in Real Estate Projects and Macroeconomic Instability. Asean Economic Bulletin, 28(1), 74.
  29. Obi-Aso, N. E. (2021). Performance of Foreign Direct Investment in Commercial Real Estate in Nigeria from 2006-2017. Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Studies, 04(07). https://doi.org/10.47191/jefms/v4-i7-10
  30. Olaleye, A. & Ekemode, B.  (2014). Integration between real estate equity and non-real estate equity. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 32 Iss 3 pp. 244 - 255
  31. Park, J. Y., Mullineaux, D. J., & Chew, I.-K. (1990). Are REITs inflation hedges? Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 3, 91–103.
  32. Park, Y., & Bang, D. W. (2012). Direct Commercial Real Estate as an Inflation Hedge: Korean Evidence. Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, 18(2), 187–203. https://doi.org/10.1080/10835547.2012.12089929
  33. Pavlov, A., Steiner, E., & Wachter, S. (2015). Macroeconomic Risk Factors and the Role of Mispriced Credit in the Returns from International Real Estate Securities. Real Estate Economics, 43(1), 241–270.
  34. Statistics South Africa (2023). Annual inflationary rate in South Africa. Available: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?cat=33 (Accessed on 24th June, 2024). 
  35. Titman, S., & Warga, A. (1989). Stock returns as predictors of interest rates and inflation. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 24, 47–58.
  36. Tukur, S. & Shehu, J. (2019). The profile and significance of listed property companies in some African countries. Traektoriâ Nauki = Path of Science, 5 (4), 1001-1007.
  37. Umeh, O. L and Oluwasore, O. A (2015). Inflation Hedging Abilities of Residential Properties in Selected areas of Ibadan Metropolis, Nigeria. ATBU Journal of Environmental Technology. 8 (2) 93-106
  38. Yaya, C. (2015). Exchange rate regimes and macroeconomic instabilities in Sub-Saharan Africa. International Review, 3–4, 15–32. https://doi.org/10.5937/intrev1504015y